Altcoins stole the show lately as some large caps saw tremendous ripples in the field. Bitcoin Cash ABC (BCH), Bitcoin Cash SV (BSV), Dash (DASH), and Ethereum Classic (ETC) have all seen gains of more than a hundred percent lately, but it’s a little premature to celebrate altcoin season in the new building ? Maybe no, but at least one reason to pay some attention to altcoin market analysis.
Daily performance of the crypto market. Source: Coin360
Altcoin’s total market cap breaks the downtrend and faces resistance
The total altcoin market cap broke the resistance at $ 65 billion and rose to the nearest resistance at $ 77 billion, which is the current level.
Altcoin cryptocurrency total capitalization chart. Source: TradingView
The current price movement in the altcoin markets bears many similarities to the price movements observed in February 2019. There was a similar period of consolidation below the support before the upward rally to the June 2019 high took place.
Total altcoin capitalization has also been hovering below the $ 60 billion resistance for some time. The breakout of this level sparked a significant 30% rally and the current surge is facing resistance in the $ 78 billion areas, which is a major hurdle to overcome.
Altcoin cryptocurrency total market capitalization 6-hour chart. Source: TradingView
The graph shows the current range between $ 72 billion and $ 78 billion. If market cap drops below $ 72 billion, retesting previous resistance at $ 65 billion should be the next level. However, a breakout above $ 78 billion could trigger another surge towards $ 100 billion.
Altcoin dominance ahead of potential breakout
Altcoin dominance chart. Source; Cointrader.pro
The altcoin dominance chart shows a possible upside breakout and the 34% level is now being tested for the third time. The general rule is that the more times the resistance is tested, the more likely it is to break out.
When the altcoin dominance chart breaks up, targets of 44% and 54% are defined in the charts. However, what does it take to sustain a surge in altcoin dominance? The large caps have to move, starting with Ethereum (ETH).
Ethereum is breaking a 7 month downtrend
ETH USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Ethereum shows a similar USDT chart as Bitcoin here. Breaking the 7 month downtrend and currently floating at a higher level to look for support. Where Bitcoin does this in the $ 8,500 to $ 8,600 range, Ethereum does the same in the $ 157 to $ 160 range.
The graph shows the strength of this level as Ethereum was unable to break it earlier in 2019. However, from September to November 2019 it was a support.
If this area is supported, a continuation up to $ 195 and $ 230 is likely.
Ethereum versus BTC breaks a 2 year downtrend
ETH BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Ethereum shows a different picture in the BTC pair, a bullish one in fact. As the graph shows, it broke a 2 year downtrend. The downtrend started on the bull market in December 2017 and appears to be over for now.
Similarly, altcoins have been showing identical moves lately through which Dash, Ethereum Classic and others have seen tremendous moves. The main reason for this is that they also broke their multi-year downtrends.
For example, if Ethereum stays above 0.018 satoshis, there are targets of 0.025 and 0.286 satoshis on the table. The chart also shows a higher low recently hit as the overall low is at 0.016 satoshis. The most recent low (green rectangle) shows a value of 0.0171 satoshis, which marks the beginning of a possible uptrend.
ETH BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
XRP continues to consolidate
XRP BTC 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
XRP (XRP) shows a setup similar to Ethereum. The soil formation was found around September 2019, when a new test is currently taking place. Similar to Ethereum, it faces a 1-year downtrend in the next few weeks.
If we go back to older XRP outbreaks, we can see that there is some usual compression taking place before the actual outbreak. The left part of the graph shows a slightly higher low plus compression before a breakout. Compression means that the price moves in a narrow range and then breaks out robustly.
The XRP against the USD is facing massive resistance
XRP USD 3-day chart. Source: TradingView
The XRP chart versus the USD shows a rebound in support at USD 0.18, after which the price moved up to the USD 0.25-0.28 range. As the graph shows, this can be seen as a critical area for breakthrough.
The price of XRP held the $ 0.25-0.28 range as support in 2018 and 2019, making this hurdle difficult to take. However, if XRP breaks this level, targets of $ 0.48 will be on the table.
Other altcoins are breaking big downtrends
One such example is Dash.
DASH BTC 1 day chart. Source: TradingView
Dash gives us an impressive chart. The decline ended at the level of January 2016, which notably marked the low for altcoins in the past market cycle.
Since reaching that level, it has seen a bullish divergence and the price has risen 195%. Remember that bullish and bearish divergences usually signal a possible trend reversal.
Interestingly, a similar move occurred in January 2016, as the price of Dash also increased by around 180% over that period.
Another sure sign for Dash is current support, which can be found at 0.01 satoshis. Although the price has fallen to this level, it has rebounded 25% since then.
Is this a signal for altcoins to wake up? It at least shows that some of them are getting up again. However, the main indicators are Ethereum and Ripple. When these start to move, the rest of the market usually follows.
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