(XRP) Ripple Value Prediction 2021/5 Years: XRP / USD stays under $ 0.20

The year 2020 for XRP began and ended with significant controversy. On January 6th, XRP futures were added on Binance. The price hike that preceded the announcement prompted numerous observers to accuse insider trading.

The XRP price started moving a few hours before the announcement, creating the impression that insiders knew the information before it was made public. So far, Binance’s CEO has denied the allegations.

In 2020, Ripple continued its monthly scheduled release of 1 billion XRP from its escrow account. In addition, the “feud” between Ripple’s CEO and Bitcoin continued. In late January, Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, told the Wall Street Journal, “I’m optimistic about BTC as a store of value, but not for payments. You don’t want to use BTC at Starbucks as it will be cold when you get your coffee.

However, the global market decline in March was more pronounced in the price of XRP than in the price of BTC.

On December 23, Ripple Labs and its two top executives were sued by the SEC over charges of illegally selling XRP, resulting in approximately $ 1.3 billion in funds.

While XRP price had fallen since the Spark airdrop on December 10, the SEC announcement sparked a downward spiral that fell nearly 52% in one day.

The Year Given these developments, BeInCrypto will attempt to predict the XRP year-end price for 2021 and 2025.

Short term forecast

After the decline that hit a low of $ 0.17 on December 29th, XRP has moved up. There was a very significant spike on January 7th, peaking at $ 0.37. The rise was preceded by a very significant bullish divergence in the daily RSI.

Even so, XRP was rejected from the 0.382 fib retracement level and has been declining since then.

While the pump was significant, the XRP trend cannot be viewed as bullish until the price hits the retracement level of 0.618 Fib, which coincides with the horizontal resistance area of ​​$ 0.47.

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Important ups and downs

Throughout its history, XRP has made several notable highs and lows.

The most important are listed in the following table:

High Low
December 18, 2014 – $ 0.3124 November 12, 2015 – $ 0.0035
May 17, 2017 – $ 0.4481 Jan 2, 2017 – $ 0.0037
January 4, 2018 – $ 3.5316 March 13, 2020 – $ 0.097

Previous market cycles

In order to predict the XRP price in the distant future, we will try to find similarities between price movement patterns in the existing market cycles up to that point. In addition, we will use technical indicators to confirm these similarities. From there, these indicators can be used to make predictions about the rate of movement. This is a useful strategy for predicting the price at an exact point in the future.

Since 2015, there have only been two periods when the weekly RSI fell below 35 – November 12, 2015 and March 13, 2020. Therefore, we can assume that these two lows represent similar points in their respective market for Bikes. In this particular case, the lows that preceded an accumulation period prior to the main bullish cycle.

If we go back to the lows, we can see that the rate of decline and the time it took for price to reach those lows from their previous highs were very different.

In the 2015 cycle, the previous high was reached on December 18, 2014 at a price of USD 0.3124. A downtrend of 329 days followed, with the price dropping 89%.

In the 2020 cycle, the previous high was reached on January 4, 2018 at a price of USD 3.531. This was followed by a drop of 97% over 798 days.

Using just these values, we can assume that the movement after the March 13th 2020 low could be very similar to that of November 12th, 2015. However, the price movement was at a rate that was 2.42 times slower (798/329) and is 1.1 times larger in size (97/89). These rates are used in the following sections to help predict the price in late 2021 and 2025.

XRP chart by trading view

These aren’t the only similarities between the two floors. Shortly before the 2015 low, the 10- and 20-week moving averages (MA) had reached a bearish cross. The price began to decline shortly thereafter, a move that continued until the price hit the aforementioned lows. In addition, XRP fell below the lower Bollinger Band twice, also below.

A nearly identical movement took place in 2020. A bearish cross between the same MAs occurred in August 2019 and signaled a downward move. A much longer decline followed, which in retrospect is not surprising given the time ratio of 2.42 calculated above. Almost identically, the price fell below the lower Bollinger Band twice. While the second drop in the form of a wick was well below the band, the closing price was very similar to 2015.

XRP chart by trading view

Forecast for the end of 2020

In the previous section, we made the calculated assumption that the move after the March 13, 2020 low was very similar to that after the November 12, 2015 low. However, this movement was 2.42 times slower with a 1.1 times larger size.

Now we can use these ratios to find the price after the November 12, 2015 low, which coincides with the one on December 31, 2020. Since the end of the year is 273 days from the date at the time of writing, we need to find the price difference 133 days after the November 12, 2015 low and apply it to the current date – multiply it by an order of magnitude of 1.1.

If we do this, we will get a price of $ 0.35 on December 31, 2020. It’s worth noting that we’re using the closing prices instead of the weekly wick lows from March 13th. This is because the considerably low wick is viewed as an extremely outlier due to its massive drop below the lower Bollinger Band.

XRP chart by trading view

As for the macro move, it looks like the price is trading within a descending wedge. It is possible for the price to trade in this wedge for a few more months before breaking out and approaching the set target of $ 0.35 by year-end.

Forecast for the end of 2021

The forecast for 2020 was relatively accurate as XRP is trading just above the predicted value.

However, given the price movement, the same rate of increase is unlikely to continue into 2021 as the XRP rose from $ 0.25 to $ 0.70 in a matter of days.

Hence, the rate of increase is more likely to accelerate through the end of 2021.

An interesting similarity that could help determine the year-end price is the 3-day RSI.

In May 2017, the 3-day RSI briefly hit levels above 80 before declining. This move took 60 days. This marked the first time in XRP price history that the 3-day RSI had been overbought.

The same thing happened during the current upward move that started in October 2020. This time, however, the movement occurred in 30 days, half the time of the previous movement.

At the same rate of increase as 2017, but half the time, we will hit a high of $ 1.85 on December 21, 2021.

XRP chart by trading view

In five years

If we stick to the same data extrapolation methods used in the predictions above, we can estimate the price on December 31, 2025. With the time rate of 2.42, we can use a date after the 2015 correction, which corresponds to December 31, 2025.

In this way, we will reach a price of $ 40 on December 31, 2025. Before this XRP price hits that high, however, it is expected to hit an all-time high of $ 120 around July 2025.

XRP chart by trading view

Conclusion

As with any cryptocurrency, the potential for volatile fluctuations in both directions remains. However, XRP has excelled in several categories for many cryptocurrencies, including but not limited to name recognition, partnerships, and use cases. Although the company Ripple had a somewhat hectic 2020, the high potential for widespread XRP adoption remains.

The price predictions for 2020, 2021 and 2025 are shown in the table below.

December 31, 2020 December 31, 2021 December 31, 2025
$ 0.35 $ 1.85 $ 40

Do you think XRP will ever hit double digits? What has to happen for the price to do this? Let us know what you think in the comments below!

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide personal investment advice, nor is it intended to provide information from a qualified investment advisor. Cryptocurrency is a notoriously risky investment, and it is possible to lose it all. Please do your own research and research before investing in cryptocurrency.

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